1000 math PhDs got this wrong - the Monty Hall problem

[wub]

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?"



Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?



(Yes, this does work on the basic principle that you want to get the car instead of a goat)

[dickman69]

The first pick is 1/3

The second pick is 1/2

Better chance in 2nd pick

Better switch

[Riddles]

The first pick is 1/3

The second pick is 1/2

Better chance in 2nd pick

Better switch

yup, pretty simple really

[garethom]

Yeah.

[ascent]

I don't know why I come here anymore may as well stay on bb.com

[wub]

I don't know why I come here anymore may as well stay on bb.com

You would be missed though!

[m8son666]

yeah its best to switch, derren brown explains why in detail in one of his books but i don't remember

[Riddles]

its also in 21. that film with kevin spacey

[test_recordings]

I wouldn't because I'm a stubborn arse like that.

Everyone else says they would though it seems

[Samuel_L_Damnson]

I would rather have the goat tho

[AxeD]

Switching makes the chance on getting the car 2/3, not switching basically gives you
a 1 in 3 chance. When I approach it logically though, I say it doesn't matter

[lovelydivot]

No - It's been reduced to a 50/50 - doesn't matter.

[wub]

No - It's been reduced to a 50/50 - doesn't matter.

Has it?

[Nihilism]

No - It's been reduced to a 50/50 - doesn't matter.

Has it?

There's a 50/50 chance that it did.

[Riddles]

Contestants who switch have a 2/3 chance of winning the car, while contestants who stick to their choice have only a 1/3 chance. One way to see this is to notice that, 2/3 of the time, the initial choice of the player is a door hiding a goat. When that is the case, the host is forced to open the other goat door, and the remaining closed door hides the car. "Switching" only fails to give the car when the player picks the "right" door (the door hiding the car) to begin with. But, of course, that will only happen 1/3 of the time.

from the wiki on the subject: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

[AxeD]

That kind of spoils it, but yeah that's what I thought as well.

Wonder if it's actually the case when you do the experiment 100 times though.

[ezza]

pickled me

this guy explains it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3r6JR6Zw_Yk (spoiler lol)

[mIrReN]

no why would I? If I get a goat I can milk it + just download the car

[wub]

no why would I? If I get a goat I can milk it + just download the car

[lovelydivot]

OH OK I get it...

Bu that's not based on math - That's based on educated assumption being the premise of the reveal.