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AllNightDayDream wrote:Yeah that lara logan shit is disgusting

The Brotherhood will be able to finally form their own legit political party, but they've had candidates run as independents for a while. They already stated they aren't going to be running for the presidential seat, so I don't really see how they are such a threat all of a sudden

Said it a few times in this thread. You don't have to be in power or even have the majority to control a country. All you need is to be in the game.

See Lebanon. Get enough people elected to make sure shit can't get done and the existing political power will be painted as ineffective. Politics 101

pkay wrote:

AllNightDayDream wrote:Yeah that lara logan shit is disgusting

The Brotherhood will be able to finally form their own legit political party, but they've had candidates run as independents for a while. They already stated they aren't going to be running for the presidential seat, so I don't really see how they are such a threat all of a sudden

Said it a few times in this thread. You don't have to be in power or even have the majority to control a country. All you need is to be in the game.

See Lebanon. Get enough people elected to make sure shit can't get done and the existing political power will be painted as ineffective. Politics 101

They've been in the game, so why is there a fuss now?

pkay wrote:

AllNightDayDream wrote:Yeah that lara logan shit is disgusting

The Brotherhood will be able to finally form their own legit political party, but they've had candidates run as independents for a while. They already stated they aren't going to be running for the presidential seat, so I don't really see how they are such a threat all of a sudden

Said it a few times in this thread. You don't have to be in power or even have the majority to control a country. All you need is to be in the game.

See Lebanon. Get enough people elected to make sure shit can't get done and the existing political power will be painted as ineffective. Politics 101

egypt isnt lebanon though, this revolution looks much more likely to be hijacked by the military than the brothers.

seems there's a possibility that Military movements during the protests have all been orchestrated so as to levy power into their hands once Mubarak had fallen.

they stand back whilst protests take place --> allow protestors to strike and march --> take their 'side' until Mubarak has gone --> THEN intervene only when all opposition has gone.

clever if thats whats taken place. perhaps the very fact the army was mobilised and then stood there and did nothing seems to suggest this was at least the plan of the armies in the short term?

jdw wrote:

pkay wrote:

AllNightDayDream wrote:Yeah that lara logan shit is disgusting

The Brotherhood will be able to finally form their own legit political party, but they've had candidates run as independents for a while. They already stated they aren't going to be running for the presidential seat, so I don't really see how they are such a threat all of a sudden

Said it a few times in this thread. You don't have to be in power or even have the majority to control a country. All you need is to be in the game.

See Lebanon. Get enough people elected to make sure shit can't get done and the existing political power will be painted as ineffective. Politics 101

egypt isnt lebanon though, this revolution looks much more likely to be hijacked by the military than the brothers.

Egypt and Lebanon are very similar socially. Lebanon has gone through, politically, what Egypt is going through now and seemingly regressed over the past 5 years.

Normally I'd agree on the army bit, but the egyptian army has seemingly remained socially connected to the general population. Military takeovers are usually by militarys that have been isolated from the general population where the military is viewed as a separate class. In Egypt, the police (under Mubarak) played this role and with Mubarak stepping out that notion went with him. Hope this isn't the case as the Egyptians have proven themselves capable of organizing and that would get really fucking ugly.

noam wrote:seems there's a possibility that Military movements during the protests have all been orchestrated so as to levy power into their hands once Mubarak had fallen.

they stand back whilst protests take place --> allow protestors to strike and march --> take their 'side' until Mubarak has gone --> THEN intervene only when all opposition has gone.

That's the exact argument made on the brotherhood.

okay i see that but the army are now commencing 'negotiations' with some elements which implies that the job of politically restructuring Egypt has fallen into their lap, as opposed to any revolutionary leader and also other political parties

no doubt there will be influence from elsewhere, muslim brotherhood? how would they fit in with the army do you think? could there be some sort of alliance, an element of power share? surely thats rare under military rule?

noam wrote:okay i see that but the army are now commencing 'negotiations' with some elements which implies that the job of politically restructuring Egypt has fallen into their lap, as opposed to any revolutionary leader and also other political parties

no doubt there will be influence from elsewhere, muslim brotherhood? how would they fit in with the army do you think? could there be some sort of alliance, an element of power share? surely thats rare under military rule?

It's kinda difficult. Egypt had made a hard stance that religion cannot be a basis for political service and this was generally supported by the people. As AllNight mentioned, the bortherhood was represented as independents in the past, but as such they weren't allowed to fully address hard lined islamic rule like they would likely prefer.

In an official capacity as the muslim brotherhood, it would reopen the religious political party argument. In a way despite all their issues, Egypt was fairly progressive in the idea that they didn't allow religion to mix with politics.

pkay wrote:
Egypt and Lebanon are very similar socially. Lebanon has gone through, politically, what Egypt is going through now and seemingly regressed over the past 5 years.

Lebanon is a tiny country whose population is about 50-50 Christian and Muslim divided into 18 different religious groups. Egypt is 90% sunni and 10% coptic christian. Lebanon was ravaged and divided almost on religious lines in a 15 year civil war. Egypt has been stable for decades. Lebanon is, per capita, three times as rich as Egypt.

I don't think you could say they're "very similar socially".

Ayatollah wrote:

pkay wrote:
Egypt and Lebanon are very similar socially. Lebanon has gone through, politically, what Egypt is going through now and seemingly regressed over the past 5 years.

Lebanon is a tiny country whose population is about 50-50 Christian and Muslim divided into 18 different religious groups. Egypt is 90% sunni and 10% coptic christian. Lebanon was ravaged and divided almost on religious lines in a 15 year civil war. Egypt has been stable for decades. Lebanon is, per capita, three times as rich as Egypt.

I don't think you could say they're "very similar socially".

What those stats don't tell you is that both countries are victims of rampant corruption so your GDP numbers mean fuck all when the people of both countries see absolutely none of that money. They're both tourism driven countries with a very well educated population and high unemployment rate. Both very westernized countries with aspirations of progress, living under the guise of free elections that turn out to be shams.

Also, the Lebanese civil war wasn't really a 'civil war' in the classic sense. It had so many outside influences involved in it that it was more so people fighting on behalf of lebanese factions. It was a war that was puppeteered by syria, iran, and factions of the PLO for years that lay waste to the Lebanese population for a war none of them wanted. My parents came to america because of the bullshit involved in a stupid war none of the people wanted.

You're right when saying that they both have a freedom and democracy deficit, but other than that you can't really say that Lebanon and Egypt are socially similar. The demographic composition of the countries alone make them very different.

And yeah sure the civil war served as a proxy war as civil wars almost always do It was still a civil war that ended only 20 years ago and you don't have anything like that in Egypt.

Ayatollah wrote:You're right when saying that they both have a freedom and democracy deficit, but other than that you can't really say that Lebanon and Egypt are socially similar. The demographic composition of the countries alone make them very different.

And yeah sure the civil war served as a proxy war as civil wars almost always do It was still a civil war that ended only 20 years ago and you don't have anything like that in Egypt.

Egypt are lucky they have running water

( runs and hides lol )

What does the Pharaoh have to say about all this?

garethom wrote:What does the Pharaoh have to say about all this?

Far as I'm aware he's still under wraps.

I'll get my coat...

Can't understand this faith Egyptians have in the army. When I lived there, all males had to serve, but if you'd been to uni (i.e. were well off) you'd only have to do a year as an officer, as opposed to three if you hadn't, which was most people. Squaddies lived in tents in the desert, with shit food and almost no pay. You'd see them on every bridge, outside every bank, with boots without laces and guns without clips, bored shitless. They went on the rampage in '86 cos of a rumour they were gonna have to serve an extra year. I know officers lived the good life cos I knew a few.

The army literally owns about a third of the country, the officer corps has a stake in everything that makes money. They have their own schools and hospitals, they're not 'of the people'. They've had it good for decades and their loyalty is to their relatives in the business community. Big business and military privilege go hand in hand, without the right contacts you can't do anything.

Whatever comes next, there's no way it's not gonna accomodate the interests of the top brass. Hosni may be 'gone', but the social order he embodied will continue under a (slightly) more democratic constitution. Look at how long it's taken Turkey to turn an officer dominated ship of state into a civilian one. Plus the jobs of millions depend on a continuation of the status quo.

One major cultural difference between Lebanon and Egypt is that the Lebanese don't cut off their daughters clitorises. Most Egyptians do, the poor with razor blades, the rich in private clinics. Nearly all the women you'll have seen on the news will have had it done, and will do the same to their kids. Hosni paid lip service to trying to stop it but gave up cos the clerics and public were outraged. Whoever wins the elections won't dare do shit about it.

^^
wasn't it his wife??

The army have said they're not putting a candidate forward at the election.

This sounds like good news.

Yep. Wouldn't have been a good look for him to talk about it himself. But no one listened to her anyway cos she's half English.

Man names his first-born daughter ‘Facebook’

Saw that the other day, poor poor girl.