In the future, do you think...

[Sheff]

There will ever be any more major manufactures of things like cars and phones?

is it even possible for a new company to be able to get into the market and compete with car makers like Ford and Toyota etc?

Thinking the same with phones and gaming systems, will there ever be anyone that could compete on the same scales with the likes of Apple and Samsung and Nokia? Xbox and playstation?

Thoughts?

[hubb]

The easy answer is no, because they would just be bought up by said companies.

But the prospects of human creativity, engineering prowess and such is more powerful than patents and lack of ideas.

It doesn't even have to be new companies that come in and change the playing field-
the companies can actually change aswell.
Take John Lassiter who was fired from Disney, made pixar and was bought up by Disney and effectively has taken over what Disney is now.
You wouldn't have a moraly sound story like UP without Pixar being a success and John Lassiter sticking to his guns.

[Sheff]

Yeah i was thinking anything successful would be bought up instantly

and yeah i guess so

[magma]

Yeah, there will. One thing we've seen with new technologies coming through, is that start-ups often get he jump on the established empires who are slow to adapt... it might not be enough to topple the empire, but footholds can definitely be found. For instance LG's rise over the last 10 years through cheap flat panel TV and cheap mobile phones means they now have a market position where they can offer mobile products at competitive quality and price points with Apple, Nokia and Samsung; HTC aren't too far behind in the mobile markets though still arguably in their "smartphone-on-a-budget" phase. Microsoft have made failed attempt after failed attempt to capitalise on mobile phone software - if you'd asked anyone in 1998 who was going to be the king of the Mobile OS in 2013, you would've answered Microsoft without much hesitation; but unless you're a business or XBox user, they're almost off the map nowadays. People don't even automatically pick Windows for their new laptops anymore.

In the automotive industry, I think it's a little bit more difficult - probably because of the up front investment needed to get a mass-produced vehicle onto the market - if you've got a factory already, you're in a huge position of advantage, but we've seen a great deal of the leaps forward in green technology coming from tiny companies - Tesla for example.... the old giants have struggled, especially the American ones - the current conditions in Detroit are a pretty good demonstration of how spectacularly old dinosaurs can fall from grace when faced with major market change... while the rest of the world has been gaining market share over the last 25 years by producing compacts and lately hybrid and electric cars, GM are still clinging onto the last century mass-producing SUVs and muscle cars with inappropriately inefficient engines for 2013.. and Detroit has become a modern wasteland, effectively America's first third-world city as a result.

I think hubb's Pixar example has its parallels in the automotive industry too, though not on such a market-changing scale perhaps - Horacio Pagani leaving Lamborghini to start his own independent marque.

It's definitely not 'sewn up', but industries with bigger economies of scale will always tend to favour established producers as long as they don't entirely fuck the game up (see GM).

[Pedro Sánchez]

Also factor in that the bigger companies source all their internal parts from various manufacturers, they just have the buying power to get bulk discount up-front and do exclusive deals. You can actually do it yourself and have a custom tablet/cell phone made and I think that is where the future is, modular, bespoke designs that will cut costs because of skipping things you don't require in a device with open-source software driving it.

[magma]

Also factor in that the bigger companies source all their internal parts from various manufacturers, they just have the buying power to get bulk discount up-front and do exclusive deals. You can actually do it yourself and have a custom tablet/cell phone made and I think that is where the future is, modular, bespoke designs that will cut costs because of skipping things you don't require in a device with open-source software driving it.

It will be VERY interesting to see how big an impact home 3D Printing has... depends how much it really turns out to be useful for , I guess, but it's looking like that might be quite a lot!

[lovelydivot]

I want to say...I think....maybe...
and I haven't really thought this through too far...but


As fast as technologies and trends are evolving...

It's going to be ineffecient to design for production on a large scale...
...without the actual manufacturing technologies being considerably more modular and mutable

morphological

tooling and reconfiguring on a large scale is a horrible economic decision
and we are eating up finite natural resources at an unprecedented rate.

I think we as people need to come off some of our ridiculous consumer behaviors...

and really wealthy people need to come off making the decisions -
because they are unrealistically diluted by their own access to money...


OK - paper - is more sustainable than making batteries....
so we need to re-value paper based arts such as printing and etching
and not so much computers and telephones...

or if we use computers - it's for prototyping and initial design - but not for the manufacture...
go back to sustainable materials for the product...

Although - in this way - digital music files are really great as product.
You make them once - infinitly reproducable...very high level of satisfaction and value on the receiving end.

dissemination - I'm not sure if it's better to have everyone with computers to disseminte & archive info...
I'm not saying it isn't effective or convenient...

I'm saying it may be unsustainable.
and it may be killing real time community in addition to being material heavy ie servers, having tech savvy guardians, hardware and software.

[Pedro Sánchez]

I want to say...I think....maybe...
and I haven't really thought this through to far...but


As fast as technologies and trends are evolving...

It's going to be ineffecient to design for production on a large scale...
...without the actual manufacturing technologies being considerably more modular and mutable

morphological

tooling and reconfiguring on a large scale is a horrible economic decision
and we are eating up finite natural resources at an unprecedented rate.

I think we as people need to come off some of our ridiculous consumer behaviors...

and really wealthy people need to come off making the decisions -
because they are unrealistically diluted by their own access to money...


OK - paper - is more sustainable than making batteries....
so we need to re-value paper based arts such as printing and etching
and not so much computers and telephones...

or if we use computers - it's for prototyping and initial design - but not for the manufacture...
go back to sustainable materials for the product...

dissemination - I'm not sure if it's better to have everyone with computers to disseminte & archive info...
I'm not saying it isn't effective or convenient...

I'm saying it may be unsustainable.
and it may be killing real time community in addition to being material heavy.

Product cycles are fucking ridiculous, companies like apple are guilty of setting this trend.

[magma]

I'm saying it may be unsustainable.
and it may be killing real time community in addition to being material heavy.

Product cycles are fucking ridiculous, companies like apple are guilty of setting this trend.

It's been unsustainable since the big three automotive manufacturers started annual model changes on cars nearly a century ago. We've been trading in perfectly serviceable vehicles just so we can have the latest front bumper for an awfully long time... the iPhone 5S ain't nothing new.

[lovelydivot]

I personally have not been able to make the jump to digital CD-J technology...

- so I can spin records, but I've never touched a CD-J.



stagnated


some of it has been my choice - I've chosen to try and have a career that will afford the previous...but that hasn't really worked out yet...


time

[kay]

There will ever be any more major manufactures of things like cars and phones?

is it even possible for a new company to be able to get into the market and compete with car makers like Ford and Toyota etc?

Yes. Tesla seems to be doing reasonably well for a new company.

Thinking the same with phones and gaming systems, will there ever be anyone that could compete on the same scales with the likes of Apple and Samsung and Nokia? Xbox and playstation?

Thoughts?[/quote]

20 years ago, Nokia was ahead of everyone (you could argue that tech-wise, they probably still are - they just haven't been able to package/market it well). Now they're nothing. 10 years ago Blackberry was everything. Now they're practically dead. Apple was tops a year ago, now Samsung have overtaken them. The trends suggest that someone with a good enough idea that's well-packaged could come out of nowhere and take the lead. There are a couple chinese mobile phone manufacturers who could very well suddenly leap ahead.

The Steam console's coming out soon to challenge the Xbox and playstation.

It's all about finding an angle that's different enough to change the paradigm so that you essentially pull the rug out from under existing market leaders.

I might be biased, but Dyson's done this 3 times with 3 product ranges within 20 years: vacuum cleaners, hand dryers and fans. So it's definitely very doable.

Reprap, MakerBot, Ultimaker have all done their bit to change the 3D printing industry, bringing it from industrial scale down to home printing. There are quite a number of new systems in this area so these "established" names could find their popularity eroded at some point.

[nowaysj]

One thing that many of you have left out is the relative health of the legal framework of competition controls. At least within the US, as the larger firms across many industries further blend into the government, (see technology, automotive, banking, agriculture) controls that encourage competition are being de facto, if not de jure relaxed. Examples would be finding Aaron Swartz hanging in his living room for suggesting a different model of privacy and digital ownership; HSBC being essentially permitted to launder money for some of the worlds most deadly criminal organizations; GM having an inexhaustible line of credit with the fed; Monsanto being relieved of any potential liability for any harm they cause.

With friends like the US gov, it is even easier to crush (hang, stab, poison, blow up, crash, suicide) the compition. While this may not be the end of compition, it sets the bar even higher. So we will likely see less compition, higher prices, lower quality, and less invention.

I do see 2 or 3 Tesla's a day now, though.

[lovelydivot]

I haven't bought television in about...23 years


I do watch a ton of movies though.

[test_recordings]

Also factor in that the bigger companies source all their internal parts from various manufacturers, they just have the buying power to get bulk discount up-front and do exclusive deals. You can actually do it yourself and have a custom tablet/cell phone made and I think that is where the future is, modular, bespoke designs that will cut costs because of skipping things you don't require in a device with open-source software driving it.

It will be VERY interesting to see how big an impact home 3D Printing has... depends how much it really turns out to be useful for , I guess, but it's looking like that might be quite a lot!

Japan's actually got manufacturing start-ups in Tokyo's 'Bit Alley'. The thing is with Japanese industry is that even though it looks like many huge companies, it's actually a massive collection of subcontractors and subsidiaries. There's actually huge numbers of small manufacturers within Japan that are linked in weird ways and you have no idea about the gadgets here because they're made in too small in production scale and no concept of any use outside the country (termed 'the Galapagos effect'). Even those massive companies cover several unrelated industrial areas and even in the same area they can have 3 separate ones competing against each other (don't forget this is within the same company group).

Modular designs would actually massively benefit the consumer because then obsolescence could be removed by manufacturers just building the best possible parts and big companies not having a stranglehold on design (build your own DIY stuff and you find a plethora of quality parts available). I actually think practical electronics and software coding should be taught as compulsive schooling because it's just so useful for people to know.

[magma]

http://hitchhikers.wikia.com/wiki/Shoe_Event_Horizon

[nowaysj]

I actually think practical electronics and software coding should be taught as compulsive schooling because it's just so useful for people to know.

My 8 year old kid is learning the most basic computer shit at school. Like make the turtle go up 10 units, turn right go 10 units... At the same age, in the very early 80's, I was already knee deep in code... wtf happened?

[topmo3]

i don't shit a fuck but why is DSF all grey now?? looks dumb

[test_recordings]

I actually think practical electronics and software coding should be taught as compulsive schooling because it's just so useful for people to know.

My 8 year old kid is learning the most basic computer shit at school. Like make the turtle go up 10 units, turn right go 10 units... At the same age, in the very early 80's, I was already knee deep in code... wtf happened?

The government decided using prepackaged software was what constituted use in the real world so how to use that became 'education'. Basically it's a massive cop out on training programmers and paying them when they can just get any dickhead to do the obvious.

[OGLemon]

I actually think practical electronics and software coding should be taught as compulsive schooling because it's just so useful for people to know.

My 8 year old kid is learning the most basic computer shit at school. Like make the turtle go up 10 units, turn right go 10 units... At the same age, in the very early 80's, I was already knee deep in code... wtf happened?

Here in the states I never even had a class that taught any computer programming. Pretty much just learning ms office, basic internet safety, and typing.

[test_recordings]

I actually think practical electronics and software coding should be taught as compulsive schooling because it's just so useful for people to know.

My 8 year old kid is learning the most basic computer shit at school. Like make the turtle go up 10 units, turn right go 10 units... At the same age, in the very early 80's, I was already knee deep in code... wtf happened?

Here in the states I never even had a class that taught any computer programming. Pretty much just learning ms office, basic internet safety, and typing.

Same as the UK, then. It's a waste of time doing the basic stuff because it's so easy to learn on your own, programming is where is it's at for the future (pretty pathetic how it' gone backwards to ignore that tbh)